A prediction of likelihoods of OC Democratic wins in November
Using data from the 2018 general and the 2022 primary
While on the road this past week, I was thinking of this analysis that can be done, and in between things, I did it. I took the 2018 Newsom vs. Cox spread, considered by many to be a good indicator of R vs D spead in the new districts, and corrected for new variations relative to 2018 due to Democratic under-voting, demographic shifts, and other factors, using the 2022 primary election results. The results are in the sheet linked below.
Key results for Irvine:
Congresswoman Katie Porter has about a 89% chance of winning her district (CD 47), greatly outperforming Newsom in her district
Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris has about a 95% chance of winning her district (AD 73), also outperforming Newsom in her district
If applying the same partisan-based methodology for Supervisor Katrina Foley's race, this method says that she has about an 11% chance of winning her district (BOS D5), this is not expected to be an accurate prediction for a non-partisan race. The many candidates in the primary split the vote, and as an incumbent, her chances are much higher. It does mean we have work to do!
I don't know about anyone else, but I don't like even a 11% chance of Katie losing, a 5% chance of Cottie losing, and the chance of Katrina losing is too high even if this calculation isn't accurate! We have some work to do for November!
Data is summarized in this spreadsheet.